Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman with Finance Secretary TV Somanathan, Revenue Secretary Tarun Bajaj and Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran during a pre-budget photo opportunity in New Delhi on Monday, 31 January 2022. (PTI Photo/Manvender Vashist)
Shedding light on the way forward after the pandemic, the 2021-22 economic survey analyzed aspects such as inflation, global liquidity measures and rising energy prices to detail risks to the economy. economy in the future. He also took stock of revenue growth to indicate the availability of fiscal space, should the government see the need to provide additional support.
The study noted that growth in 2022-23 will be supported by widespread immunization coverage, gains from supply-side reforms and easing of regulations, robust export growth and the availability of fiscal space. to increase capital expenditure.
The economic study presented to the Lok Sabha by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman pointed out that buoyant tax revenues provide the government with fiscal space to provide additional support to the economy and continue the push for higher taxes. capital expenditure. Although output in various contact-intensive services remained below pre-pandemic levels, she said macroeconomic strength provided buffers against likely stresses such as the withdrawal of stimulus measures by global central banks. .
The Economic Survey 2021-22 forecasts a modest growth rate of 8-8.5% for the next fiscal year, 2022-23. This figure is significantly lower than the 9.2% expansion forecast by the ONS in its first forward estimates for 2021-22. It is also lower than the 9% growth estimate by the IMF in its World Economic Outlook for the current year and next.
Behind the cautious estimate for next year are not only the many risks – global input shortage inflation – posed by Covid-19, the survey points out, but also its assessment that the economic downturn induced by the pandemic is not simply a demand problem.
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