All-out war or “creeping occupation” among Putin’s options, according to Ukrainian defense ministry

If Russian President Vladimir Putin decides to attack Ukraine, he will have around 220,000 troops, including around 120,000 already deployed near Ukraine’s borders, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry told the Military Times on Thursday morning. .

But whether he will attack is still unknown, according to the Defense Ministry, which plots two potential courses of action Putin could take – either all-out war or “creeping occupation” of Ukraine.

While Russia is said to be ready to launch an attack no later than February, according to the Defense Ministry, Ukrainian officials are still unsure whether Putin will give the green light.

“According to our data, V. Putin has not yet made a decision,” according to the Defense Ministry. “It will depend on many factors. “

Before making the decision to attack, Putin will take into account the economic and political situation in Ukraine, the international community’s support for Ukraine, “the strict reaction (in the form of so-called hellish sanctions, military assistance, etc. .) of the world’s major countries on the Kremlin’s aggressive policy towards Ukraine, ”and the situation in Russia itself, according to the Defense Ministry.

President Joe Biden held talks with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in an attempt to calm the situation. He both vowed that Russia would face “serious consequences” if Russian military forces advanced into Ukraine, but he also said he would not deploy US combat forces in the region to repel such an assault. . Other Western leaders have made similar statements. Germany’s new Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Russia would face “massive consequences” if it attacked, according to Reuters.

In addition to the 120,000 Russian troops currently deployed around Ukraine’s borders, Russia would deploy troops from its western and southern military districts, as well as airborne units if it decides to attack, according to the assessment. .

“The total strength of all Russian troops (…) which could be involved in the large-scale invasion against our country represents around 220,000 soldiers,” according to the Ministry of Defense.

The Russian embassy did not immediately respond to a request for comment. However, Putin has denied plans to launch an invasion and turned the conversation around by urging Western leaders to provide legally binding guarantees preventing NATO expansion in Ukraine and the deployment of alliance weapons there. low, calling such actions a “red line” for Moscow, according to The Associated Press.

“The Kremlin said on Thursday that Russia had submitted draft documents outlining the security deals it wanted to negotiate with the United States and its NATO allies amid mounting tensions over Ukraine.” , according to AP.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said a senior Russian representative was ready to leave immediately for talks in a neutral country on the proposal, according to AP.

While Ukrainian morale remains high, the defense ministry says there is no illusion of how bad things could turn out.

“There is no doubt about the high morale and patriotic spirit of our citizens to defend our sovereignty and territorial integrity,” the defense ministry said. “At the same time, Russia has one of the largest armies in the world in terms of strength and armament. If the decision is taken to expand the scale of armed aggression against Ukraine, Russia will use all available arsenal of modern weaponry.

This arsenal includes operational and military tactical aviation, high-precision weapons belonging to its air, naval and land components and electronic warfare weapons, according to the Defense Ministry. The ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and the Caspian Flotilla will be activated in the Black Sea and the Sea of ​​Azov.

While it’s unclear what Putin will do, Ukraine’s defense ministry told the Military Times that it may take some action.

“We expect the Russian leadership to have enough common sense to avoid war,” the defense ministry said. “In turn, the most real scenario of the development of the situation is the creeping occupation of Ukraine. “

Similar to how Russia was able to annex Crimea and invade eastern Ukraine with the help of local separatists, an ongoing fight that has claimed more than 14,000 lives since 2014, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry said Russia could expand this effort, using “special services / Russian agents of influence.”

Thus, Russia “would create favorable conditions for the intensification of combat actions” in eastern Ukraine, according to the Defense Ministry.

“The provocations made by Russia on the temporarily occupied territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts with numerous victims of the local population… (inhabitants with Russian passports) will be an excuse for the resumption of hostilities. It will be used by the Kremlin for the protection of Russian citizens. Under favorable conditions, Russia will continue the occupation of Ukraine.

To date, the United States has committed more than $ 2.5 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since 2014, according to the Pentagon. This support “includes, but is not limited to, the provision of aerial surveillance radars, counter-artillery radars, unmanned aerial systems, secure communications, military medical equipment, armed patrol vessels and Javelin anti-tank systems. “.

Given the extent of the Russian arsenal, Ukraine asks for more.

“The most important thing for Ukraine is modern aircraft, including drones (attack and reconnaissance versions); short and long range air defense resources, modern electronic reconnaissance and warfare systems, anti-tank and anti-ship systems, etc. », Indicates the evaluation.

The Ukrainian military is working to rapidly deploy US-supplied weapons, such as the Javelin handheld anti-tank missiles.

“We will solve this task as soon as possible with the help of Western instructors,” according to the Defense Ministry. “We already have this experience in the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

If the Russians invade and overwhelm the Ukrainian army, officials are planning a possible insurgency to retaliate.

“In case of [Russian Federation] attempts to expand the scale of armed aggression against Ukraine, the answer is yes, ”the Defense Ministry replied in response to a question of whether it would distribute arms to its citizens. “Today, measures on the territorial defense training troops are being carried out.”